ASEAN

> **July 26, Asia Times**
(ASEAN, Myanmar agree to disagree – Larry Jagan)

Hanoi – Myanmar Foreign Minister Nyan Win left last week's Association of
Southeast Asian Nation's (ASEAN) summit meeting before a key regional
security forum that likely would have raised the topic of his country's
alleged nuclear ambitions. His early departure underscored the lack of
leverage the 10-member grouping has in pushing military-run Myanmar
towards more transparency and democracy.

Ministers at the meetings where Nyan Win was in attendance stressed the
need for Myanmar's planned general elections later this year to be
credible, urged the release of detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi
and repeatedly raised recent news reports that it had received missile and
possibly nuclear weapons-related technology from North Korea.

Foreign ministers gave Nyan Win an "earful" from the opening dinner
onwards, ASEAN secretary general Surin Pitsuwan told Asia Times Online on
the sidelines of the meeting. "Myanmar listened intently to what was said,
nodding approvingly at times, and agreed to take the region's concerns
back to the top guy," said Surin, referring to junta leader Gen Than Shwe.

ASEAN's top dialogue partners, including the United States, the European
Union and Japan, also weighed in with concerns. "We urge Myanmar to create
the necessary conditions for credible elections, including releasing all
political prisoners, especially Aung San Suu Kyi, respecting human rights
and cease the attacks against ethnic minorities," US Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton told journalists just before she left the regional
security meeting in Hanoi on Friday.

Nyan Win said he had to leave the meeting a day early so that he could
prepare to accompany Than Shwe to India later this week. On his return
from India, Nyan Win is scheduled to host North Korean Foreign Minister
Pak Ui Chun, who is to visit Myanmar also this week. Some perceived his
early departure as a diplomatic snub, signaling that Myanmar puts priority
on its relations with India and North Korea.

"We have few carrots that they are interested in and no sticks," said a
Southeast Asian diplomat attending the meeting.

Earlier hopes that Myanmar's accession to ASEAN in 1998 would lead it
towards more political openness and faster economic development through
integration with Southeast Asia's more developed economies have failed to
bear substantial fruit. Mahathir Mohamad, the former Malaysian prime
minister, first raised the prospect of expelling Myanmar from the grouping
after the 2003 brutal attack on Suu Kyi's caravan by pro-government thugs
that killed many of her supporters.

The expulsion option was resurrected by some media after news reports
emerged about the junta's apparent nuclear ambitions, which if true would
be at odds with ASEAN's non-nuclear proliferation treaty. However,
ministers at the meeting said expelling Myanmar was not under immediate
consideration.

"Expelling Myanmar wouldn't achieve anything," Malaysian Foreign Minister
Anifah Aman told Asia Times Online in an interview at the end of the
meetings. "It would only further isolate them ... Of course if Myanmar had
nuclear weapons that would be a totally different matter."

Many ASEAN countries fear that a further isolated Myanmar would only
increase China's presence and influence over the regime. ASEAN must remain
engaged with Myanmar because of China's and India's involvement,
Singapore's Foreign Minister George Yeo told reporters during the
conference.

Public support, private anguish

ASEAN has adopted a mix of public support and private pressure to nudge
Myanmar towards democracy and greater transparency, according to ministers
who spoke with Asia Times Online. However, many were disappointed by the
ministers' final statement, which expressed ASEAN's wish that the
forthcoming elections be free, fair and inclusive but fell short of
recommending the immediate release of all political prisoners.

"Myanmar is holding an election - so they must be given credit for that,"
said Malaysia's foreign minister. "That's progress, and we should not
prejudge it."

The regime has not yet announced a firm election date, but when the polls
are finally held 25% of the new parliament's seats will be reserved for
the military appointees.

"We won't see a sharp break [after the elections] from what it is today,
but we will see an important turning which will lead Myanmar into a
different situation," Yeo told journalists earlier in the week after
meeting his Myanmar counterpart. "Once the generals take off their
uniforms and they have to win votes and kiss babies and tend to local
needs, their behavior will change and the economy will gradually open up,"
he said.

Indonesia, which since 1998 has accomplished a successful transition from
military to democratic rule, has been at the forefront of lobbying the
junta to accept international or regional election monitors to shore up
the credibility of the polls, a suggestion first raised at last year's
ASEAN summit.

Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia have offered assistance in training
election commissioners and for those managing the polling stations.
Meanwhile, ministers floated the idea of creating a special ASEAN envoy
position to discuss the elections directly with Than Shwe, a suggestion
that was rebuffed.

"We suggested quite strongly to our Myanmar colleagues that they consider
having ASEAN observers at the elections, bringing in members of the family
into what is really their own domestic affair," Yeo told reporters in
Hanoi.

Malaysian Foreign Minister Anifah told Asia Times Online, "But this has
all been rebuffed by the Myanmar government who says they don't need help
and have had experience in holding elections."

The junta has still not announced when the polls will be held, leading to
speculation about the role soothsayers and numerology may play in deciding
a date. Nyan Win told Asia Times Online that he was the foreign minister,
not the electoral commission.

He later told Bangladeshi Foreign Minister Dipu Monim, with whom he held a
20-minute bilateral meeting, that "we are still hoping that the election
will be in October". However, a senior Myanmar diplomat told this reporter
during a coffee break: "No one really knows the election date, not even
the minister."

Many of the assembled ministers privately told Myanmar representatives
that political prisoners, including Suu Kyi, who has been held under house
arrest for 15 of the past 22 years and is not legally eligible to run at
the polls, should be released if the election is to be considered
inclusive, according to Surin.

Some even suggested she should be released before the election and allowed
to participate, he said. Nyan Win's reply to his Japanese counterpart was
that Suu Kyi would be released in due course and allowed to compete in the
next elections, presumably to be held in 2015.

"We can be quite strong behind closed doors," said Indonesian Foreign
Minister Marty Natalegawa in an interview. The junta cannot overlook the
fact that ASEAN is on the record demanding Suu Kyi's immediate release,"
he said.

ASEAN foreign ministers agreed to this at their meeting in Phnom Penh in
2003 and it was put into the chairman's statement at the time. "If we
don't specifically rescind it then the demand remains in force,"
Natalegawa said. "And the Myanmar leaders can be in no doubt that this is
still the view of all of ASEAN."

Myanmar "definitely wants us to rubber stamp the election results," a
senior Indonesian diplomat said on condition of anonymity. "And while we
will use every opportunity to push the Myanmar authorities to greater
democracy, in the end we will probably end up being a big rubber stamp."

Surin commented: "ASEAN is very much interested in the peaceful national
reconciliation in Myanmar and whatever happens there will have
implications in ASEAN, positive or negative. If [the election results] are
not objectionable, then they will be acceptable."

Larry Jagan previously covered Myanmar politics for the British
Broadcasting Corp. He is currently a freelance journalist based in
Bangkok.






**Silver Moon**

**July 26, Asia Times**
(ASEAN, Myanmar agree to disagree – Larry Jagan)

Hanoi – Myanmar Foreign Minister Nyan Win left last week's Association of
Southeast Asian Nation's (ASEAN) summit meeting before a key regional
security forum that likely would have raised the topic of his country's
alleged nuclear ambitions. His early departure underscored the lack of
leverage the 10-member grouping has in pushing military-run Myanmar
towards more transparency and democracy.

Ministers at the meetings where Nyan Win was in attendance stressed the
need for Myanmar's planned general elections later this year to be
credible, urged the release of detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi
and repeatedly raised recent news reports that it had received missile and
possibly nuclear weapons-related technology from North Korea.

Foreign ministers gave Nyan Win an "earful" from the opening dinner
onwards, ASEAN secretary general Surin Pitsuwan told Asia Times Online on
the sidelines of the meeting. "Myanmar listened intently to what was said,
nodding approvingly at times, and agreed to take the region's concerns
back to the top guy," said Surin, referring to junta leader Gen Than Shwe.

ASEAN's top dialogue partners, including the United States, the European
Union and Japan, also weighed in with concerns. "We urge Myanmar to create
the necessary conditions for credible elections, including releasing all
political prisoners, especially Aung San Suu Kyi, respecting human rights
and cease the attacks against ethnic minorities," US Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton told journalists just before she left the regional
security meeting in Hanoi on Friday.

Nyan Win said he had to leave the meeting a day early so that he could
prepare to accompany Than Shwe to India later this week. On his return
from India, Nyan Win is scheduled to host North Korean Foreign Minister
Pak Ui Chun, who is to visit Myanmar also this week. Some perceived his
early departure as a diplomatic snub, signaling that Myanmar puts priority
on its relations with India and North Korea.

"We have few carrots that they are interested in and no sticks," said a
Southeast Asian diplomat attending the meeting.

Earlier hopes that Myanmar's accession to ASEAN in 1998 would lead it
towards more political openness and faster economic development through
integration with Southeast Asia's more developed economies have failed to
bear substantial fruit. Mahathir Mohamad, the former Malaysian prime
minister, first raised the prospect of expelling Myanmar from the grouping
after the 2003 brutal attack on Suu Kyi's caravan by pro-government thugs
that killed many of her supporters.

The expulsion option was resurrected by some media after news reports
emerged about the junta's apparent nuclear ambitions, which if true would
be at odds with ASEAN's non-nuclear proliferation treaty. However,
ministers at the meeting said expelling Myanmar was not under immediate
consideration.

"Expelling Myanmar wouldn't achieve anything," Malaysian Foreign Minister
Anifah Aman told Asia Times Online in an interview at the end of the
meetings. "It would only further isolate them ... Of course if Myanmar had
nuclear weapons that would be a totally different matter."

Many ASEAN countries fear that a further isolated Myanmar would only
increase China's presence and influence over the regime. ASEAN must remain
engaged with Myanmar because of China's and India's involvement,
Singapore's Foreign Minister George Yeo told reporters during the
conference.

Public support, private anguish

ASEAN has adopted a mix of public support and private pressure to nudge
Myanmar towards democracy and greater transparency, according to ministers
who spoke with Asia Times Online. However, many were disappointed by the
ministers' final statement, which expressed ASEAN's wish that the
forthcoming elections be free, fair and inclusive but fell short of
recommending the immediate release of all political prisoners.

"Myanmar is holding an election - so they must be given credit for that,"
said Malaysia's foreign minister. "That's progress, and we should not
prejudge it."

The regime has not yet announced a firm election date, but when the polls
are finally held 25% of the new parliament's seats will be reserved for
the military appointees.

"We won't see a sharp break [after the elections] from what it is today,
but we will see an important turning which will lead Myanmar into a
different situation," Yeo told journalists earlier in the week after
meeting his Myanmar counterpart. "Once the generals take off their
uniforms and they have to win votes and kiss babies and tend to local
needs, their behavior will change and the economy will gradually open up,"
he said.

Indonesia, which since 1998 has accomplished a successful transition from
military to democratic rule, has been at the forefront of lobbying the
junta to accept international or regional election monitors to shore up
the credibility of the polls, a suggestion first raised at last year's
ASEAN summit.

Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia have offered assistance in training
election commissioners and for those managing the polling stations.
Meanwhile, ministers floated the idea of creating a special ASEAN envoy
position to discuss the elections directly with Than Shwe, a suggestion
that was rebuffed.

"We suggested quite strongly to our Myanmar colleagues that they consider
having ASEAN observers at the elections, bringing in members of the family
into what is really their own domestic affair," Yeo told reporters in
Hanoi.

Malaysian Foreign Minister Anifah told Asia Times Online, "But this has
all been rebuffed by the Myanmar government who says they don't need help
and have had experience in holding elections."

The junta has still not announced when the polls will be held, leading to
speculation about the role soothsayers and numerology may play in deciding
a date. Nyan Win told Asia Times Online that he was the foreign minister,
not the electoral commission.

He later told Bangladeshi Foreign Minister Dipu Monim, with whom he held a
20-minute bilateral meeting, that "we are still hoping that the election
will be in October". However, a senior Myanmar diplomat told this reporter
during a coffee break: "No one really knows the election date, not even
the minister."

Many of the assembled ministers privately told Myanmar representatives
that political prisoners, including Suu Kyi, who has been held under house
arrest for 15 of the past 22 years and is not legally eligible to run at
the polls, should be released if the election is to be considered
inclusive, according to Surin.

Some even suggested she should be released before the election and allowed
to participate, he said. Nyan Win's reply to his Japanese counterpart was
that Suu Kyi would be released in due course and allowed to compete in the
next elections, presumably to be held in 2015.

"We can be quite strong behind closed doors," said Indonesian Foreign
Minister Marty Natalegawa in an interview. The junta cannot overlook the
fact that ASEAN is on the record demanding Suu Kyi's immediate release,"
he said.

ASEAN foreign ministers agreed to this at their meeting in Phnom Penh in
2003 and it was put into the chairman's statement at the time. "If we
don't specifically rescind it then the demand remains in force,"
Natalegawa said. "And the Myanmar leaders can be in no doubt that this is
still the view of all of ASEAN."

Myanmar "definitely wants us to rubber stamp the election results," a
senior Indonesian diplomat said on condition of anonymity. "And while we
will use every opportunity to push the Myanmar authorities to greater
democracy, in the end we will probably end up being a big rubber stamp."

Surin commented: "ASEAN is very much interested in the peaceful national
reconciliation in Myanmar and whatever happens there will have
implications in ASEAN, positive or negative. If [the election results] are
not objectionable, then they will be acceptable."

Larry Jagan previously covered Myanmar politics for the British
Broadcasting Corp. He is currently a freelance journalist based in
Bangkok.






**Silver Moon**